Logadóttir is leading the race now

According to a poll conducted by the Icelandic Centre for Social Research, Prósenta, there is a strong changing movement among the top-ranking runners for president, and this can be seen in the results of other polling firms, such as Maskína and Gallup.

In this last poll, Halla Hrund Logadóttir’s taking the lead is the biggest news story, but as can be seen in the chart below, it has been both strong and fast. Other candidates have been losing points as a result, some more than others. Thus, both Baldur Þórhallsson and Jón Gnarr have been steadily falling, but based on the results of the Prósenta poll, Katrín Jakobsdóttir’s support has fallen most markedly in the past week.

It is difficult to pinpoint the trend or how it will progress in the coming weeks. However, based on the development of responses between days in this survey, it seems surprising to assume that the trend of Logadóttir’s support has started to slow down.

Based on Logadóttir’s rise in support and Jakobsdóttir’s dramatic decrease from 23.8% to 18% between weeks, it seems that Logadóttir is taking support from the former Prime Minister.

It should be noted that there is a significant margin of favor for candidates. Jakobsdóttir’s margin of favor is now 15.8% to 20.4%, but her margin of favor is down by 3.4% between these measurements of Prósenta if the higher margin is used.

If you look at the top candidates, Logadóttir is taking the most support from Jakobsdóttir, or 5.8%, Baldur Þórhallsson 2.2% and 1.4% from other candidates.

It is tempting to explain this by saying that to some extent, people prefer Logadóttir over Jakobsdóttir to other candidates, as they have to choose between two women competing for first place. However, it is too early to say, as the gender of the candidates has not been much of a factor in the campaign so far. There is still ways to go and a lot can happen in the next weeks.